
Dylan Patel – Two labs will soon control most of the world's workforce
About this episode
From the show’s notesHad a lot of fun chatting again with my twin brother Dylan Patel.
We went through lab economics over the next few years - the shift from inference to training as RSI draws near; and how Anthropic and OpenAI are on track to control most of the world’s usable FLOPs within the next few years (because they can monetize compute better and thus outbid everyone).
Read the show’s notes in full
And then we discuss whether the $10T+ of total AI capex we’ll see by the end of the decade will cause a sovereign debt crisis, where hyperscaler debt raises interest rates, drives non-AI exposed countries into bankruptcy, and crashes non-AI equities.
One question we weren’t able to resolve is whether there’s anything that can counter all the forces barrelling towards centralization in this industry - the economies of scale in training, the scarcity of compute, and eventually continual learning and RSI.
𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒
* Transcript: dwarkesh.com/p/dylan-patel-3
* Apple Podcasts:
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d…
* Spotify:
open.spotify.com/episode/1chA0s…
𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒
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