Prediction markets want to be the news
About this episode
From the show’s notesToday let’s talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways.
My guest today is Liz Lopatto, a senior reporter at The Verge who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position which directly incentivizes insider trading. That in turn creates a long list of very predictable problems.
Read the show’s notes in full
Read the full interview transcript on The Verge.
Links:
Prediction markets want to eat the news | The Verge
How anonymous bettors cashed In on the Iran strike | NYT
With Iran, Kalshi & Polymarket Bet on the Depravity Economy | 404 Media
Polymarket pulls bet on nuclear detonation in 2026 | 404 Media
Polymarket defends betting on war as ‘invaluable’ | The Verge
Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture | The Verge
Are prediction markets gambling? Robinhood CEO bets no | Decoder
Prediction markets roll out war bets beyond Washington’s reach | Bloomberg
Polymarket partners with Substack for some reason | The Verge
It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets | The Verge
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Credits:
Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.
Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane.
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