# Thinking Machines Lab — Training LLMs to Predict World Events (Guest Post with Mantic)

- Company: Thinking Machines Lab (thinkingmachines.ai)
- Announced: 2026-03-19
- Category: not stated
- Coverage: not counted
- Announcement: yes
- Group: announcements
- Source: https://thinkingmachines.ai/news/training-llms-to-predict-world-events
- Record: https://forck.live/items/18559-training-llms-to-predict-world-events-guest-post-with-mantic
- Subject: Thinking Machines / Inkling

Mantic have been using Tinker since it launched. This guest post is a technical deep dive on what they have built so far. The top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on geopolitics and current affairs. It’s over (Polymarket, 2026) This is exciting because scalable, automated forecasting could significantly improve the quality of decision-making across the economy and in government. To date, the most successful recipe in forecasting tournaments has been to combine an off-the-shelf LLM (like Gemini 3 or GPT-5) with forecasting-specific context-gathering. These models, to our knowledge, have not been explicitly trained for forecasting. Can we improve the recipe by replacing them with models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting? We target “judgmental forecasting”: prediction problems that require human-like research and reasoning. Judgmental forecasting is needed for domains like geopolitics, politics, technology, business, and economic policy, where there often isn’t enough data for a standard statistical approach like time-series extrapolation. …

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Record: https://forck.live/items/18559-training-llms-to-predict-world-events-guest-post-with-mantic
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